Weighing the Fitzpatrick factor
By: GARY WECKSELBLATT
Bucks County Courier Times
Should he enter the 8th District Congressional race, the fallout from a Republican Party endorsement could cause a fracture.

Mike Fitzpatrick's potential entry into the 8th District's crowded Republican field has been met with what amounts to a standing ovation by the GOP's hierarchy seeking to wrest the congressional post from Democrat Patrick Murphy.

And the reasons are obvious.

Fitzpatrick has a resume that already includes a congressional triumph, and he likely can extract cash from both the national party and local big shots - the lifeblood of a campaign and a talent Murphy has mastered.

These two credentials would certainly boost the former congressman's prospects of garnering the nomination if - when - he enters the race.

Then there are the nine announced candidates, none of whom has separated themselves from the pack four months before the May 18 primary, leaving Fitzpatrick an opening.

"I believe Mike will make an excellent congressman again," said Pat Poprick, vice chairwoman of the Bucks County Republican Committee. "He has always been very responsive to the community from as far back as his days as commissioner. I'd be shocked if he doesn't run."

Poprick's words carry significant clout. She says she's simply speaking her personal opinion, not necessarily that of the committee.

But in a year when Tea Party activists rue the deficit spending and health care legislation proposed by Democrats, they also have little faith in Republican leadership. They squawk at the thought of a party endorsement, fearing it could become a coronation and deny the 8th District an energetic primary.

Last Monday's candidates' forum, sponsored by The Kitchen Table Patriots whose initial grassroots effort was last spring's Tea Party at Washington Crossing State Park, shows the muscle the group is developing.

"Everybody's voice needs to be heard, that's the bottom line," Anastasia Przybylski, one of the KTP organizers, said of the candidates. "Mike Fitzpatrick, I wish him luck, but I sure hope that we have a primary."

Przybylski said the Bucks Republican Party should avoid endorsing any candidate in this race.

"I don't see the point," she said. "Just let it be. I think it could hurt Mike, make him look like he's part of the machine."

Poprick disagreed.

"Why have a party if we're not going to endorse?" she said. "That's our job."

Poprick applauded people like Przybylski for the energy they're bringing to the Republican Party, but said most Bucks County residents aren't politically active and don't get to see the candidates. "Many people rely on our recommendations," she said. "We listen to all of the candidates and let voters know what we think.

"It's an integral part of the party's job to do the screening for everybody. If we don't, shame on us."

Polls find that the Tea Party groups - those folks who flooded last summer's town hall meetings - are hardly a fringe group. In fact, they're more popular than Democrats or Republicans.

According to an NBC/Wall Street Journal poll, 41 percent of likely voters now have a favorable opinion of folks like Przybyski, compared with 35 percent for Democrats and 28 percent for Republicans.

"The popularity of the parties is diminishing across the country," Przybyski said. "People feel disenfranchised with the process. I don't know if the party realizes that."

But she is loathe to use her organization's influence to form a third party. She saw what happened in New York's 23rd District when GOP leaders endorsed a candidate that supported the stimulus package. Activists instead chose a conservative candidate and in a three-way race the Democrats took the seat.

Advertisement "I'm 100 percent opposed to a third party," Przybyski said. "People need to get behind the winner and take out Murphy. An endorsement might make people engaged for the first time look for another candidate. That's the risk they're running."

Republican strategist Charlie Gerow of Quantum Communications said an endorsement doesn't take away a primary "unless the candidates make it so. There will be a primary on May 18. The question is how many people will be on the ballot."

Which is Poprick's point.

"Our endorsement doesn't say someone else can't run," she said. "It says we think this is best person to run. We're not stopping any body."

All signs point to Fitzpatrick looking for another shot at Murphy.

He was in Washington on Wednesday with GOP leaders hoping to round up support, The Hill reported.

Asked last week on WNPV about running, he said "I'm certainly considering it."

Fitzpatrick, 46, an attorney and former Bucks County Commissioner from Middletown, was congressman from 2004-06. He lost his re-election bid to Murphy, 36, and a two-term Democrat, in 2006 by 1,500 votes.

Democrat Larry Ceisler, a political analyst and publisher of PoliticsPa.com, said conservative activists should be pleased if Fitzpatrick is their nominee.

"I don't know what these people want," he said. "If you look at Mike Fitzpatrick's record, it mirrored that of (former Sen.) Rick Santorum. That's one of the reasons he lost.

"If they want a revolution and they want primaries, chances are they're not going to win general elections. Mike Fitzpatrick has an uphill battle as it is against Patrick Murphy. Bucks County is not the southern part of Mississippi. If they want to make it tougher for Republicans to regain this seat, fine with me."

Fitzpatrick's expected entry into the race has already changed expectations of at least one national pollster.

The Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan publication that previously listed the 8th District as "safe Democratic" changed its status to "likely Democratic" because of Fitzpatrick.

"I expect this to become even more competitive," said David Wasserman, Cook's House editor.

He said Murphy's victories have come in a "political environment that has gone from perfect to ugly."

The candidates, he said, would be basically switching places four years later. Murphy becomes the incumbent supporting an unpopular president. Fitzpatrick is the challenger with an energized base.

"Bucks County, despite having trended toward Democrats in the last several decades, is not exactly Barack Obama's natural constituency. Voters are upset with way he's running the country and that reflects back on the congressional landscape."

Terry Madonna, director of the Franklin & Marshall College Poll, said the election will be about Obama.

"It's not about the personalities of the candidates," he said. "This is about Obama's stimulus, government control, health care, national security and Afghanistan. Is Patrick Murphy worth another term in that context."

Gerow, the Republican strategist, agreed.

"Patrick Murphy by his own choosing has cemented himself at the hip with Barack Obama. His political fortunes will rise or fall on the strength or weakness of Barack Obama. And right now he doesn't look too popular."

Congressional Quarterly's Scorecard, Roll Call's Outlook and Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball maintain the seat as safe for Murphy.

"I expect the race would tighten and we would change this again next month," Wasserman said. "It's rare that we move more than one column at a time."